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Sony's reduced hardware allotment could hurt the bottom line of companies that banked on the system's launch; may spur pubs to delay some games until next year.
By Brendan Sinclair, GameSpot
Posted Oct 3, 2006 1:57 pm PT
UBS Investment Research analyst Michael Wallace assessed the PlayStation 3 and Wii launch plans of a number of US publishers in a note to investors today, and not all of the news was positive. While Wallace noted that software sales were already up about 3 percent for the year so far (matching his original prediction for the full year), he warned that the delay of the European release of Sony's system may have a negative impact on some companies' bottom lines this year.
Wallace had expected Sony to ship about 500,000 PS3 systems to Europe by the end of the year, but with the system not expected to release there until March of 2007, he worries about the impact it will have on US publishers. Aside from having 500,000 less consumers to sell their games to, publishers may decide to delay games that had been expected this year into 2007 to take advantage of what will be a larger user base. However, Wallace doesn't specify any particular titles that would be in danger of this and notes that if Sony can ship 1.5 million PS3s to the US by year's end, it would make up for the shortfall of systems caused by the European delay.
As for which publishers face the biggest downside as a result of the delay, Wallace said that Activision has built its quarter around the PS3 launch more than other publishers and could suffer the largest downside as a result. While he expects Electronic Arts to have four or five PS3 games at launch compared to Activision's three, Wallace also said that EA has a more balanced portfolio for the quarter.
Even the caution about Activision is tempered with a note that the publisher could make up any losses in other areas of its business. Wallace said that Nintendo's expected 2 million Wii units available for the US by the end of the year is more than he expected. As a result, Activision and THQ are best positioned to take advantage of that, with five games and four games expected for the Wii launch, respectively. (Wallace does not issue reports on foreign publishers like France-based Ubisoft, which has announced a lineup of eight Wii titles and is expected to offer PS3 launch titles as well, including Blazing Angels: Squadrons of WWII.
Wallace's list of expected Wii and PS3 launch titles from the publishers he covers is included below.
Ubs投资研究机构分析师Michael Wallace近日做出预测：PlayStation 3和Wii主机的发售计划将会对许多美国的游戏开发厂商带来许多不利的影响， Michael Wallace提到今年以来，游戏软件的销售呈良好上上升趋势，同比增加了3%,他对于这次SONY公司的PlayStation 3在欧洲地区的推迟发行表示是一个警告，对于许多针对该平台开发游戏的公司是一个负面的不良影响。
Wallace也期待SONY公司的PS3的出货量截至今年年底可以达到预期的50万套，但是发行日不要一拖再拖直到2007年3月份，他比较担心会影响到美国的游戏出版商。一方面可能如果真的要等到明年3月才可以拿到PS3,那么会出售给PS3游戏玩家们的软盘肯定不会有50万套了，发行商们可以决定延迟他们的游戏发布直到2007年，但是要期望会有一个巨大的游戏市场。然而，Wallace没有特别指出如果今年年底之前PS3的出货量可以达到1.5百万套时候还会不会有危险，这样倒是可以弥补欧洲市场由于延期所造成的不良影响。
对于提到哪个游戏开发公司对于此次延期所带来的不良后果最为严重时，Wallace说著名的Activision公司估计是最为严重的，公司的四分之一的工作都是围绕PS3的发售而展开的。他也期望EA公司可以带来四到五个PS3的游戏和Activision公司的三个游戏进行比较，EA对于此次延期所受到的影响要相对来得少。
对于在PS3上所受到威胁的一些游戏公司包括Activision能否从其他领域进行弥补时，Wallace又说任天堂希望在美国地区到年底WII的出货量可以到2百万套，对于这个结果，Activision 和 THQ可能是最大的得利者，他们在WII平台的研发游戏分别是四个和五个。
以下为预测的一些WII和PS3的首发游戏。
| Activision | | Call of Duty 3 (PS3 Wii) | | Marvel: Ultimate Alliance (PS3 Wii) | | Tony Hawk's Project 8 (PS3) | | Tony Hawk's Downhill Jam (Wii) | | World Series of Poker (Wii) | | Rapala Tournament Fishing (Wii) | | Atari | | Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 2 (Wii) | | Electronic Arts | | Madden NFL 07 (PS3 Wii) | | Need for Speed Carbon (PS3 | Wii) | | Tiger Woods PGA Tour 07 (PS3) | | Fight Night Round 3 (PS3) | | NBA Live 07 (PS3) | | Midway | | Ant Bully (Wii) | | Happy Feet (Wii) | | Rampage: Total Destruction (Wii) | | The Grim Adventures of Billy and Mandy (Wii) | | Take-Two | | NBA 2K7 (PS3) | | NHL 2K7 (PS3) | | College Hoops 2K7 (PS3) | | THQ | | Cars (Wii) | | SpongeBob SquarePants: Creature From the Krusty Krab (Wii) | | Avatar: The Last Airbender (Wii) | | Barnyard (Wii) |
消息来源:GAMESPOT. |
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发表于 2006-10-4 19:07 · 云南
